Giant Dilemma

The 2022-23 season was the most success the New York Giants have had since 2016-17. General Manager Joe Schoen and Head Coach Brian Daboll (Coach of the Year) managed to turn the team around in just one season despite the limitations the past regime left behind.

Now, the franchise has a tough decision ahead of them when it comes to their two notable free agents this offseason, running back Saquon Barkley and quarterback Daniel Jones. With two big ticket free agents, the team must try to keep their core together and that begins with choosing who to use their lone franchise tag on.

Both members of the Giants’ dynamic duo, Daniel Jones, and Saquon Barkley, have made it clear that they would like to return next season. Likewise, the team would like to resign two of their best offensive players. Yet, contract negotiations with both players have fans on edge, concerned about the team’s future.

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Daniel Jones

2022-23:

3205 PASS YD | 15 PASS TD | 5 INT (3rd) | 67.2 COMP% | 60.8 QBR (6th)| 708 RUSH YD | 7 RUSH TD | 1 REC | 16 REC YD

One of the first responsibilities Joe Schoen had as Giants General Manager was determining whether to pick-up Daniel Jones’ fifth-year option which was ultimately declined at the start of last offseason. Now after a career year under Brian Daboll, Schoen is faced with signing the rising star quarterback to a long-term contract that is deemed as a projection not reflection of his career thus far.

Although it has been tough to evaluate Daniel Jones throughout the first four years of his career due to the lack of talent surrounding him, coaching changes, and turnover concerns. Many can agree that not bringing him back would set the franchise back to square one.

Expectation is Jones will cash in this offseason to eclipse $35 million per season which would rank amongst the top-10 paid quarterbacks in the NFL. However, what may seem like a ridiculous asking price now may be deemed as a discount very soon.

Many big time quarterbacks like Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, Justin Herbert, Joe Burrow, and Trevor Lawrence amongst others are awaiting their pay day and plan to reset the market when it is their turn for a new deal. So it may be best to pay Jones now rather than later if the team wants to make the commitment.

Saquon Barkley

2022-23:

1,650 SCRIMMAGE YD | 10 TOTAL TD

Saquon Barkley has been the face of the franchise since he was drafted 2nd overall in 2018–he has led the team in jersey sales in each of the last three seasons.

He had his best season since his rookie year; finishing the season as a finalist for Comeback Player of the Year, ranking fourth in rushing yards this season (1,312) and fifth in carries of 20-plus yards (9).

Barkley has made it clear he does not plan on resetting the running back market; Christian McCaffrey is currently the standard at $16 million per season. However, he turned down a deal back in November that would have paid him $12 million per season. Currently, only 6 running backs (McCaffrey, Kamara, Elliott, Cook, Henry, and Chubb) have deals that average more than $12 million per season. A deal could get done if both sides meet in the middle at around $14 million per season.

Over 60% of rushing yard leaders the past 5 seasons have been under a rookie contract. Thus, the Giants would prefer to save the franchise tag for Saquon Barkley due to reasons like injury history, positional value, and cap hit. Currently, the franchise tag looms at $10.1 million for running backs to $32.4 million for quarterbacks. Allocating $32.4 million to next season’s cap space affects the Giant’s ability to upgrade in other areas like adding additional offensive playmakers.

Prediction

The clock is ticking. The team has until March 7th to make a decision regarding their franchise tag. So, who will they use their lone franchise tag on to ensure remains with the franchise?

The NFL is a quarterback-driven league, so paying Daniel Jones and franchise tagging Saquon Barkley would be the ideal scenario. However, I believe Barkley and the team are closer to a deal.

I predict Saquon Barkley and the team will agree to a new deal before March 7th, ranging anywhere from $13 to $14.5M per season. As a result, the team will then use the non-exclusive franchise tag on Daniel Jones—allowing him to test the market and giving the Giants the ability to match any offer. Should he come to an agreement with another team and the Giants decline to match, the other team would then have to pay him and give up two first round picks which is not likely to happen.

If the Giants do not come to an agreement on a new deal with either player and are forced to pick who to use their lone franchise tag on, it will likely be Daniel Jones which means they will let Saquon Barkley test free agency.